7/day...1 Every 3 Hours...

I just read the Wharton Study featured in the Buffalo News story by Jay Rey. Here it is, if you missed it. Seven people/day...one every 3 hours...leaving Buffalo, NY...

A few points made my Peter Linneman and Albert Saiz of The Wharton School just leap off the page....
  • ...the best way to predict a county's population growth is to look at how much it grew in the past decade. (p.5)
  • The age distribution of the population in another predictor of future growth, that is, very young and very old populations tend to grow more slowly. (p. 7)
  • A high degree of taxation may make a county less attractive to taxpayers and entrepreneurs. (p.8)
  • If we run our analysis with politics as the only variable, we find that Republican dominated counties (based upon presidential and senatorial data from the early 1980's) do tend to grow faster. (p.8)
  • Briefly put, Americans are rapidly leaving cold, damp and snowy areas for sunnier and drier climates. (p. 9)
  • Since declining cities such as New Orleans, Detroit and Buffalo have massive and valuable housing stocks, reduced housing demand translated into lower housing prices, and made these cities a bit less unattractive. (p. 9)
While "white flight" no longer seems to be a demographic force in Buffalo, the hollowing out of the urban core and the progressively larger "urban prairie" shows how the points made by Linneman and Saiz are impacting Buffalo, NY. And then there's the related story in the study about 12 of the top 50 counties in the nation, that are projected to lose the most population by 2020, are right here in New York State. "Blue" counties, too!

Here's that list (p.12). Herkimer, Cayuga, Chatauqua, Erie, Schoharie, Livingston, Chemung, Niagara, Wayne, Onondaga, Genesee and Broome. (New York State Counties Red v. Blue via CNN) These "red" counties have smaller populations, are mostly rural and lack significant population centers.

If anyone has the numbers on people leaving New York State...let me know.
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Anonymous said...

I guess I don't get it. How is this all Hillary Clinton's responsibility? And why aren't you kissing her ass for single-handedly bringing your beloved Artspace to "the hood"?

fix buffalo said...

When HRC was running for senate she promised to focus on the Up State NY economy. I'll do the lexis-nexis search later in the week and find the references to her statements about 200K jobs...

I believe the Wharton study refers to multiple factors in the hollowing out of cities and counties in NYS...

Do you really think we should let our public officials off the hook if they play a part in one project - Artspace - (certainly not single handed btw...)when other issues need to be addressed?

fix buffalo said...


Just read through some of the early Artspace announcements. I keep finding references to our former Mayor having invited Artspace for a look around Buffalo after similar artspace project failed in another part of NYS...

If you have any information about HRC being single-handedly responsible for bringing Artspace to "the 'hood" - please share. I'll post it...

Anonymous said...

October 4, 2000

Section: LOCAL


ROBERT J. McCARTHY - News Political Reporter

Hillary Rodham Clinton once again touted the advantages of her upstate economic-development plan Tuesday, this time attaching assurances that it will produce 200,000 new jobs throughout the region during the course of her six-year term.

Speaking before a hastily convened morning meeting of the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce in Michael's Banquet Facility, the Democratic Senate candidate insisted that her ideas of targeted tax cuts and development initiatives are superior to the broad-based tax cuts proposed by Republican opponent Rick A. Lazio.

"I know here in Hamburg you like to say you invented the hamburger -- I'm not sure of the truth in that, but it's a great claim," she told her audience of about 250. "But it's a good place to ask: Where's the beef in his claim in saying (his) tax cuts will help upstate New York?"

The most effective way to address the lagging upstate economy is emerging as a major theme between the candidates as they battle for the upstate support that could account for more than 40 percent of the vote. Both acknowledge progress in creating and retaining jobs, but they differ on the magnitude of the problem and how to address it from here.

While Lazio had proposed across-the-board tax cuts to help stem the flow of New York dollars to Washington, Clinton says her targeted approach will be more direct in creating jobs. She also says a plan aimed at paying down the national debt by 2012, strengthening Social Security and moderating Medicare with a prescription drug benefit will complement special programs for upstate.

"I would argue this is better than any tax cut across the board," she said. "And as long as we responsibly balance the budget, we can have tax cuts."

Expert says plan is doable

The Clinton plan may contribute to job growth in the upstate region, according to some experts, but they question the influence of Washington legislators on state and local policies. Kent Gardner, director of economic analysis for the Center for Governmental Research in Rochester, said that type of growth for the approximately 2.1 million employed in the major upstate areas is doable -- and even a "meager" expectation.

Gardner said New York needs a senator to guard its interests in Washington, but the real decisions affecting job growth will take place on a more local level.

"Some of the things she talks about certainly can be helpful, but the things that make a difference will be entrepreneurial and local governments going out to hustle business," he said.

Lazio spokesman Dan McLagan said Clinton's plan goes too far. He pointed to a study by the National Taxpayers Union (which he called independent and Clinton called "ideological") indicating her proposals would devour the projected surplus.

"She may create 200,000 jobs, but they'll be for Washington bureaucrats," he said. "She'll tax and spend upstate jobs out of existence."

Lazio defends his proposals

McLagan said Lazio's plans are also "targeted," but to a wider audience.

"Under her targeted plan, if you behave the way the federal government says you should and you jump through all the bureaucratic hoops -- here's your $20 and your tax cut," he said.

Clinton was ready for that attack, too, referring several times throughout the day to endorsements by major money men like Robert Rubin, former Treasury secretary, and Warren E. Buffett, the billionaire investor who is also chairman of The Buffalo News.

She also said she would work to impose a "budget cap that would make it very difficult" to overspend.

But her visit was mainly designed to step up her emphasis on the upstate economy, portraying her plan as loaded with specifics. She again outlined plans for new tax credits for small business, "tech bonds" to ensure broad access to high-speed Internet lines, and "entrepreneurial incubators" to help supply support for new ideas and businesses.

Clinton tackles energy policy

She saved some of her strongest emphasis for ways to lower the state's high utility costs, promising to support legislation that ensures consumer choice among different energy providers. She also stressed the need for changes in energy policy, some on the state level.

"It's very clear that New York's version of utility deregulation did not turn out like it was supposed to," she said.

Clinton also had plenty of time for politicking during a visit that began Monday night with a fund-raising event in the Radisson Hotel, Cheektowaga, organized by businessman Frank J. McGuire and others. Sources indicated it raised about $100,000 for a campaign that she admitted will need even more to compete with Lazio.

She made that clear Tuesday while opening a campaign headquarters at the corner of Hertel and Colvin avenues in North Buffalo.

"He will outspend me, I estimate, maybe 3-to-1, or at least 2-to-1, in these last five weeks," she said. "That's a very significant advantage for him. His message will be pounded in on radio and television to voters -- five, 10, 15 times a day. There's no way I can compete with that."

But buoyed by rising poll numbers for Clinton, the state Democratic leader said Tuesday that a win by the first lady could lead to a toppling of Republican Gov. George E. Pataki in two years.

Polls show the first lady edging ahead of Lazio and running almost even against him in upstate areas.


Given that the Bush Administration and its Republican cohorts in Congress have, in fact, passed broad, sweeping tax cuts such as those touted by Lazio, I fail to see how Clinton's failure to reach her 200,000 jobs target is her fault.

She is one of 100 senators in what was, at best, at a 51-49 split of Dems to Republicans, and in the Senate you need 2/3 to get anything passed, due to filibuster and cloture.

So, objectively speaking, the past 6 years have actually underscored the failure of the Lazio tax plan for upstate, since Hillary never managed to get her plan passed in the Senate.

fix buffalo said...


Thanks for the story...I'm not sure if I understand your comments at the bottom.

Are you suggesting that the success of Bush's tax cuts have prevented HRC from cobbling together an economic stimulus package that would help Upstate?

Let me know...

Anonymous said...

No, I'm suggesting that a Hillary's plan never saw the light of day, so it's hardly fair to criticize it for never succeeding.

On the other hand, Bush passed what Lazio was proposing and it didn't help at all.

Remember - we're talking federal policy here. When they say New York is the highest taxed state in the Union, it's not because of what we pay to Washington.

b said...

I guess I don't get it. How is this all Hillary Clinton's responsibility?

I don't think he's saying it's all her responsibility. But of course she should be held to account. She made such a huge deal about it during 2000 campaign. And obviously inherent in her "plan" was very strong implication that she was saying she could and would make it happen. Her speeches, debate, and TV ads stated things directly, no back-pedalling then. Her ineffectiveness in office is NOT a good excuse after the fact! If it was pre-conditioned on other elections she should've stated that then. In 2000, GOP already had both houses of Congress and most of that year Bush was ahead in polls, so it wasn't shock that she wouldn't be in Senate majority or have a Dem president. Besides, Schumer gets plenty done in minority, so why allow her that excuse? Her "plan" was bogus and she knew just as we all do that NY State policies are main culprit. But no doubt her strategists advised her to announce the "plan" and use that number of jobs, and voters fell for it. So be it but she should be made to answer.

Another Anon:
On the other hand, Bush passed what Lazio was proposing and it didn't help at all.

That's opinion, not fact. Federal income tax cuts and capital gain tax cuts were both substantial and may well have made some impact here, although we're clearly not doing nearly as well as national economy. Much recent private investment in Buffalo is from rich people spending money they have available to spend and deciding it's worthwhile to risk. Some of that money they'd still be sending to Washington if Gore was President. And even with after-tax money if the previous higher cap gain rates were still in effect, then in some cases they might have put it elsewhere into investments safer than Buffalo projects. All speculation, of course. But even though companies aren't moving/expanding here much (need big state tax cuts for that to ever be), there have been some big investments at increasing pace here the past couple years.